- Stage 3: 5h 59' 54" (actual), 5h 07' 03" (prediction), 52' 51" fast (-14.68% error)
- Stage 3: 10.35 m/s (37.26 kph or 23.15 mph)
As happy as we were to be under 1% yesterday, we're just as mystified to be nearly 15% off today. I tell audiences during my Tour de France talks that there are many things we cannot know about the race, and teams' strategies are right at the top of the list. The same model that nailed yesterday's stage needed its cyclist power output cut by nearly a third today. Riders were clearly holding back, and I don't claim that because we had such a bad prediction. Learning as the race unfolds is a lot of fun, and we certainly learned something today.
Tomorrow's Stage 4 is a 237.5-km (147.6-mi) flat stage, which is this year's longest stage. Were cyclists saving energy today for tomorrow's long ride? That could very well have been the teams' strategies. Beginning in the commune of Saumur, the stage takes riders southeast to Limoges. Below is our prediction.
- Stage 4: 5h 56' 59" (prediction)