21 July 2012

26 Seconds Off Wiggins' Time!

Seeing Bradley Wiggins come in as the final finisher in today's Stage 19 individual time trial made my day!  He was so fast, and he brought the winning time down to the point that we almost nailed it perfectly.  Below is the comparison between Wiggins and us.
  • Stage 19:  1h 04' 13" (actual), 1h 04' 39", 26" slow (0.67% error)
Wiggins won his second stage, both of which have been individual time trials, and all but sealed up his Tour de France win today.  Check out his average speed.
  • Stage 19:  13.89 m/s (49.99 km/hr or 31.06 mph)
Wow, that's fast!

Tomorrow's final stage is 120.0 km (74.56 miles) long and takes riders from the commune of Rambouillet to the famed Avenue des Champs-Élysées in Paris.  The final Tour de France stage has always been a challenge for us to model because it is mostly ceremonial.  Watch for Wiggins sneaking a sip of champagne while cycling!  We nearly nailed the time Mark Cavendish had in winning last year's final stage.  We hope to have estimated well just how much to reduce cyclist power output in our model.  Below is our prediction.
  • Stage 20:  3h 05' 49" (prediction)
Will Cavendish win the final stage again and give Team Sky an all-around wonderful day?  Enjoy your ride into Paris, Bradley Wiggins!

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